Thursday, January 21, 2016

2016 Twins offseason top 40 prospects: Summary and Meta Analysis

I am trying something new this year.  Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list,  I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.

This is the last segment in this series.  You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the systemhere.  Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 hereplayers 26-30 hereplayers 21-25 hereplayers 16-20 here, players 11-15 here,  players 6-10 hereand players 1-5 here


Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :

1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+


Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :

Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)

Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18),  Alexis Tapia RHP (25)

Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)

Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)

Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19),  Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario  RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33), Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)

For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season


Here is the list by position:

 1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
20. Felix Jorge  (29), RHSP, 2018
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019

2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016

3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018

12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016

10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018

5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+

11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+

7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017

14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--),  CF, 2020
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017

Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go.  As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers.  As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises.  Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed.   Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.

Here is the list broken down by ETA:

1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016

2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017

4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
20. Felix Jorge  (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018

5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019

7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--),  CF, 2020
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+

Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions.  The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought.   It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020.   Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.

Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season.  It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.



 

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