Thursday, September 24, 2015

Glen Perkins' Second Half by the Numbers

Glen Perkins, the Twins' closer has had a very trying second half.  Here are some metrics to put his second half in perspective.  I am indicating his 2015 second half numbers, and adding his career second half numbers (as a starter and reliever,) and his full career numbers for comparison and perspective:

Glen Perkins' 2015 Second Half Numbers:

ERA: 7.16; career second half: 4.53; career: 3.79
batting against (all batters) : .351/.382/.658 (1.040 OPS) ; career second half: .275/.325/.474 (.799 OPS) ; career:  .266/.312/.417    (.730 OPS)
K%: 16.9; career second half: 17.6; career: 19.2
WHIP: 1.78; career second half: 1.33; career: 1.34
BABIP: .364; career second half: .300; career: .284
FIP: 6.88; career second half: 4.73; career: 3.87
HR/FB: 21.4 %; career second half: 14.9%; career: 10%
GB/FB: 0.64; career second half: 1.09; career: 1.04

Perkins' second half in 2015 (injuries or not,) is monumentally bad.  As seen here, his second halves are traditionally worse than his first half and 2015 is much worse than his average second half.  

What are the drivers for this?  

  • A decrease in the K-rate
  • A huge increase in HRs per fly ball, combined with a huge decrease in GB/FB
  • Much higher BABIP, which means that balls in play are more often than normal hits.

His FIP is close to his ERA, which means that he is pitching pretty badly regardless of his defense and the BABIP bump is likely because of balls being hit harder.

The Twins cannot depend on him at his point of their post-season drive and should be smart to look for other options for a closer in 2016, with a best case scenario the then 33 year old Perkins being a productive set-up man, which will be in par with is $6.5M salaries for 2016 and 2017. 



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